abstract:The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Nassim Taleb has explained the stupidity of such false assurances and misplaced comfort in his BlackSwanTheory, and I will not attempt to footnote his extensive treatise.
The blackswantheory was developed by Nassim Taleb to describe an event that is a complete surprise, has a major impact, and after the fact is rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.
Whether you are a devotee of the BlackSwanTheory or merely another hard-boiled cynic like me, you may now be counted among those who place little comfort in years of accumulated stock market statistics.